After 250 years, still betting on America

Just not with Kalshi.

American flags on Main Street, U.S.A. at Disneyland. (Photo by Sammy Roth)

I didn’t expect to feel especially patriotic going into the Fourth of July weekend, and the headlines weren’t helping.

Wildfires raged across the parched American West, with the possibility of fireworks igniting more infernos. Fossil fueled extreme heat tormented the Eastern U.S., forcing the cancelation of parades in Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. World Cup matches were played in potentially dangerous heat, threatening players and fans alike — even as Rupert Murdoch’s Fox network raked in hundreds of millions of dollars selling TV ads during climate-spurred hydration breaks.

Murdoch wasn’t the only vulture profiting off the climate crisis as America celebrated its 250th birthday.

The prediction market Kalshi — where you can place monetary bets on the outcome of real events, including sports, elections and wars — has been running a World Cup-themed ad. A few seconds in, Croatian soccer legend Luka Modrić sees the following question on the Kalshi app: “Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?”

It’s a real thing: Kalshi currently offers a whole page of climate-related wagers. As of Monday evening, Kalshi offered 75% odds against 2026 being the hottest year.

You can also try Kalshi’s competitor, Polymarket, where it’s possible to place bets on wildfire activity — how big wildfires will get, how much they’ll destroy, etc.

That’s America at 250: Even death and destruction are packaged into simple financial products you can access on your phone, most likely to your detriment.

Meanwhile, President Trump and his cronies seemed eager to dishonor our nation’s history in the run-up to July 4. They agreed to pay another energy company to cancel another offshore wind farm — that’s four now. They handed out pardons to men who had violated the Clean Air Act by modifying diesel truck engines to let them pollute more. They refused to bring back reservations or adequate funding to national parks, stirring fears of disastrous overcrowding at Yosemite.

Despite all that, they sought to portray themselves as heirs to Teddy Roosevelt — one of America’s greatest conservationists. Trump flew to North Dakota last week aboard his Qatari-gifted luxury jet to inaugurate the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library. He was joined by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who’s been busy screwing around with the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and otherwise scrambling to beautify D.C. — the stuff Trump actually cares about.

Theodore Roosevelt National Park is one of the coolest places I’ve visited.

And as for American climate policy?

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright downplayed Europe’s record-breaking heat wave. Three federal firefighters died in Colorado amid the Trump administration’s overhaul of firefighting tactics. Prominent conservatives, including Senator Ted Cruz, slammed Zohran Mamdani for asking New Yorkers to set their air conditioners to 78 degrees — even though that’s exactly what Texas advised during a previous heat wave.

So I felt a little down on America heading into the semiquincentennial.

Fortunately, the feeling didn’t last all weekend.

Maybe enjoying a baseball game at Dodger Stadium restored my faith — even though the Dodgers lost, and even though the Dodgers’ starting lineup was “sponsored by 76,” your friendly neighborhood oil company.

Maybe it was visiting the Autry Museum of the American West, which has a fabulous new exhibit about the social and political movements that have helped make L.A. such a diverse, thriving, ever-evolving city, white nationalists be damned.

As seen at the Autry. (Photo by Sammy Roth)

Maybe it was watching the latest episode of Larry David’s HBO sketch comedy series “Life, Larry and the Pursuit of Unhappiness.” It features a posthumous appearance by Rob Reiner, who plays George Washington and helps skewer Donald Trump.

Or maybe it was spending Friday at Disneyland, one of my favorite places. The newly opened Soarin’ Across America ride emphasizes the great outdoors, offering sweeping views of the Grand Canyon, Denali National Park, a Louisiana bayou, South Dakota’s Custer State Park and more. The nighttime fireworks show started with narration and images evoking America’s Indigenous peoples, before describing the U.S. as “a vibrant palette of cultures and colors.” I found myself cheering.

Not exactly revolutionary, but coming from Disney? In Trump’s America?

This country is deeply flawed; arguably it’s gotten worse lately. But we can’t succumb to despair. We need experiences that remind us what we still love about this place. We need reasons for hope, even patriotism.

Fortunately, we have lots of reasons. Even as Trump cracks down on political speech, Americans keep cracking jokes. Even as temperatures rise, we keep enjoying baseball. We keep gathering on Main Street, U.S.A. We’re staying informed, and protesting, and voting. We’re working hard to build a better tomorrow, powered by sun and wind.

I’ve never wagered a penny. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet on America — on democracy, pluralism and climate progress. Whatever the odds, I’d take them.

Maybe together, we can improve the odds.

In other news

Also seen at the Autry. (Photo by Sammy Roth)

First, the feds:

• President Trump’s EPA suggested it it would test for microplastics in drinking water. Guess what? It will not! (Susanne Rust, L.A. Times)

• A Supreme Court decision giving the president greater control over independent agencies could have huge implications for energy policy. (E&E News)

• An appeals court said the Trump administration can keep removing national park signs on climate and slavery, at least for now. (Maxine Joselow, New York Times)

Next, the states:

• Rhode Island’s Democratic governor, Dan McKee, vetoed a bill that would have required large buildings to report their energy use, citing “housing affordability challenges.” (Nancy Lavin, Rhode Island Current)

• Seventeen states are suing California to block its single-use plastics regulations. Meanwhile, three environmental groups are suing in the other direction, arguing that the rules aren’t strong enough. (Susanne Rust, L.A. Times)

• A leading Democratic in the California Assembly, Cottie Petrie-Norris, wants to kill $194 million in funding for school HVAC upgrades that would keep kids cool and clean the air they breathe during wildfires. (Jeff St. John, Canary Media)

More climate backsliding:

• Princeton University reneged on its promise to divest from fossil fuel companies. (Brett Tomlinson and Julie Bonette, Princeton Alumni Weekly)

• Google’s greenhouse gas emissions rose 18% — and its water use rose 34% — in 2025. Thank you, AI. (Amy Harder, Axios)

Cleaning the air:

• I’m not sure why it’s taken Los Angeles nearly two years to take another shot at phasing out urban oil drilling after its first attempt was thrown out in court. But I’m glad to see it happening. (Hayley Smith, L.A. Times)

• A study estimates five Americans die every single hour from toxic car pollution. (Dharna Noor, the Guardian)

• You can now get electric vehicle rebates in California again! It’s $3,500 for a new EV and $1,750 for a used EV. (Caroline Petrow-Cohen, L.A. Times)

• If you think carbon capture is going to make much of a difference anytime soon, check out this investigation. (ProPublica, Drilled)

Last but not least, a surprising turn of events: The Trump administration says it will seek a new trial for the 30-year-old man charged with igniting the Palisades fire, after the jury couldn’t reach a unanimous verdict. The jurors voted 10 to 2 for acquittal.

As I’ve noted several times, press coverage and public discourse around the Palisades fire has focused almost entirely on the ignition source and the government’s response, with global warming an afterthought at best. It’s unsurprising but no less unfortunate. We can’t solve a problem we don’t talk about.

Fortunately, talk is the easy part. Please go talk about climate!